19 September 2014
Acknowledge uncertainty and confront it directly
When dealing with business risk, we are inevitably tackling an uncertain future, about which it is difficult to make predictions. As US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’a observed, there are ‘things we know that we know… things that we now know we don’t know… [and] unknown unknowns’. This captures part of the problem. However the idea that risk – uncertainty – is fundamentally a problem that can be managed with enough knowledge is a common misconception.
The concept of cause and effect,...